UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLAIMS DEVELOPMENT RESULT

Abstract

Claims development result is difference between two consecutive estimates for total ultimate loss. Claims development result appear in the profit and loss acount at the end of period concerned. It is very important for insurance companies to calculate and determine these values. In this study, we analyze claims development result and its prediction uncertainty. We calculate reserves for two different reserve methods (chain ladder and additive loss reserving method). In conclusion, we compare results for these reserve methods.