Analysis of Frost Damage Risks in Peach Orchards around Tokat, Turkey

Abstract

The aims of this study were: i) to introduce a developed frost risk analysis model, ii) to test the model for the peach orchards located around the Tokat city for the last 35 years, and iii) to measure the frost damage prediction performance of the model with the measured peach yield data from 1972 through 1977. The model uses hourly temperature data and dates of bud development stages to predict damages due to late spring frosts, and then, to estimate the yield in percentage. The hourly temperature data and the dates of bud development stages of peach (J.H. Hale) tree for the growing period of 1972 through 2007 (except 1995) were obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The model produced frost damages in 13 years out of 35 (37%) for the orchards around
Tokat. In 12 of 13 years, the damage rates were higher than 57%. Furthermore, the yearly average peach yields measured in a research study carried out at the Research Institute of Soil and Water Resources in Tokat were compared with those predicted by the model to validate the performance of model. An 8.7% average difference between the measured and predicted yield was found.