A Statistical Approach for Estimating The Probability of Occurrence of Earthquake on The Northern Anatolian Fault Zone

Abstract

Probabilistic methods are useful for characterizing earthquake prediction because they are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. Earthquake occurrence probabilities can be predicted by using different probability distributions. In this study eleven distributions are examined for determining the best one that represents earthquake data from Turkey during the last 104 years. In such a determination, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Chi-square, Anderson-darling test statistics are used independently for treating Turkish earthquake data. It is concluded that the Weibull probability distribution is the most appropriate than any other distribution with the data at hand. This result is valid for the earthquake risk evaluation in the area between longitudes 40o50’ – 41o50’ N and latitudes 30o
00’ – 40o 00’ E which includes the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAF) as the most active fault in Turkey.