Predicting Urban Growth in a US Metropolitan Area with No Zoning Regulation

Abstract

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (Houston CMSA) has experienced rapid population growth during the past 3 decades and it is projected to reach approximately 7.5 million by 2030. Houston also is the only major US metropolitan area with no zoning regulations. Using SLEUTH, a spatially explicit cellular automata model, the spatial pattern of future urban growth within the Houston CMSA is predicted for the 2002 to 2030 period. The SLEUTH model is calibrated for local conditions in Houston using four historical urban extents, two land use layers, four transportation layers, slope layer, and
excluded layer for the period from 1974 to 2002. The modeled SLEUTH, growth in the Houston CMSA is predominately “organic”with most growth occurring along the urban/rural fringe. Projected increases in urban area from 2002 to 2030 parallel projected increases in population growth within the Houston CMSA. From 1990 to 2000, the population of Houston CMSA more than doubled from approximately 2,000,000 to 4,600,000 and it is expected to grow by an additional 2,800,000 people by 2030. Secondly, urban growth in Houston over the past 30 years has epitomized the term urban sprawl because the urban area has quadrupled, growing from 941 to 3,724 km2 from 1974 to 2002, and it is predicted to double by 2030, reaching 6,621 km2.